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Doubts Over AI Investment Returns Spread; Wall Street Hedges Risk with Put Options and CDS
AI2 min read
Wall Street investors are buying insurance-like bets to protect themselves if AI stocks and AI business profits fall. Doubts are growing about whether the huge sums of money poured into AI will pay off.
Wall Street Prepares for an AI Drop
Big investors are using special financial tools to guard against losses from AI investments. The Wall Street Journal reported that individual investors and tech company executives who put money into AI companies are buying put options and credit default swaps (CDS). These tools can pay off when prices fall. Demand is also growing to protect against a drop in the rental price of AI chips (GPUs).
Key Numbers and Facts
- Intel's stock fell 28.6% in one day on the 30th of last month.
- Alphabet fell more than 12% in one day, its biggest one-day drop ever.
- Put option trading hit a record high last month and has stayed high since.
- CDS prices for five big tech firms (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle) rose over the past month. They are the highest since 2021.
- CoreWeave's stock was trading around $55 last week. Many bets are on a drop to a $35 strike price with a 2028 expiry.
Some Simple Terms
A put option is a contract that makes money when a stock price goes down. A CDS works like insurance: the buyer is protected if a company cannot repay its debt. When CDS prices rise, the market is more worried that a company may fail to pay. GPU rental prices matter because data centers earn money by renting out these chips to other companies.
Why It Matters
Huge amounts of money are flowing into AI, so a big loss could hit many investors and companies at once. One expert said that CDS prices rising for every company points to worry about the whole AI industry, not just one firm. Markets are now treating AI risk as a serious issue.
What to Watch
- Whether AI stock prices keep swinging up and down sharply.
- Whether CDS prices for big tech firms keep rising.
- How put option trading changes in the coming months.
- Whether GPU rental prices fall and hurt data center operators.
Glossary
- Put option
- A contract that pays the buyer when a stock price falls.
- GPU
- A powerful computer chip used to run AI programs.
- CoreWeave
- A company that provides cloud computing infrastructure for AI.