No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector

What the economist says

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, says AI has not yet paid off for most of corporate America. Big tech firms are seeing gains, but other companies are not. Many firms now see AI token spending (the fees paid for each chunk of AI text or data processed) as a cost, not a source of growth.

Key numbers and facts

• Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493.
• Profit margins (the share of each dollar of sales that becomes profit) are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493.
• There are no clear signs yet that AI is boosting productivity growth.
• Charts in the report use data from Bloomberg, Macrobond, and Apollo, with inflation adjusted to 2019 Q4.

Some useful context

The Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) are the largest US tech companies. The S&P 493 are the other companies in the S&P 500, a major stock index. Agentic AI means AI systems that can carry out tasks on their own, not just answer questions.

Why it matters

The article argues that the real test of AI will happen outside tech. If most companies cannot turn cheap AI into more sales or higher profits, the wider effect of AI on the economy will stay small. The author also says AI cannot fully handle judgment, trust, and fairness, which affect how businesses earn money.

What to watch

• Whether revenue and profit margins start to rise in the S&P 493.
• Whether AI models become cheap enough that ordinary businesses start using them widely.
• Whether productivity growth finally shows a clear AI boost.