Please stop asking me when the AI bubble will pop

What happened

At a finance summit in Hong Kong in 2026, several leaders of big money firms talked about risks in AI. The head of PIMCO, a large bond investment firm, said the AI market will likely go down and that things will then break. Apollo, another big investment firm, also warned about AI risk. Both said they do not know how prices and profits will change.

Key numbers

• Meta drew $58 billion in orders for a bond sale that was expected to be $15 billion to $20 billion.
• Oracle said it needs another $20 billion in bonds.
• Microsoft sold $25 billion in bonds, its first bond sale in a decade.
• PIMCO estimates AI could need $2 trillion in financing over the next five years.
• The entire US bond market is about $12 trillion.

What is an AI bubble?

A bubble is when prices rise far above what something is really worth, often because people expect big gains. Companies are spending huge sums on AI data centers and computer chips. Much of this money is borrowed through bonds, which are loans that investors buy and that must be paid back with interest.

Why it matters

If AI companies borrow too much and the boom slows, they may not be able to pay their debts. That could hurt banks, investors, and the wider economy. The writer says no one knows when or if this will happen, but more people are now showing caution, and the party may be winding down.

What to watch

• Whether Meta, Oracle, Alphabet, and Microsoft can sell their new bonds easily.
• Whether Anthropic's possible IPO, which is when a company first sells shares to the public, goes well.
• Interest rate increases by the US central bank.
• Wars or a financial crisis in the eurozone, which PIMCO named as possible triggers.
• Reports of AI bubble problems in China.