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Ayre Think Tank Study Warns AI Boom Could Widen $360 Billion Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations
Policy2 min read
A new study from the Ayre Think Tank warns that AI could make the gap between rich and poor Commonwealth countries much bigger. It estimates a $360 billion gap in possible economic gains over ten years.
What happened
The Ayre Think Tank released the Ayre Index at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. The index looks at the lives of 732 million young people aged 15 to 29 across all 56 member countries. It finds that AI could widen the gap between countries that are ready for it and countries that are not.
Key numbers
- Only 15 countries met the youth AI readiness standard.
- In a middle-case scenario, the economies of those 15 countries could grow by a combined $389.2 billion in 10 years.
- The other 41 countries could grow by only $29.2 billion.
- The $360 billion gap is about twice the $174 billion in aid that major donors gave last year.
- Singapore ranked first. Malta, Australia, the UK and Canada followed. Malawi and Lesotho ranked last.
Why access is not enough
Having a network does not create opportunities on its own. In Togo, almost everyone lives within 4G coverage, but fewer than half of young people said they use the internet. In Malawi, only one in five people has electricity. Even where interest is high, gaps remain. About 90% of young Nigerians surveyed expect to use AI for work or study within a year, but Nigeria scored only 0.8 out of 10 on an existing digital skills measure.
Why it matters
The study says that the real question is not just who can get AI. It is whether AI will create new businesses and better jobs, or make old economic gaps worse. The answer depends on skills, low-cost internet, paths to work, and support for entrepreneurs. Calvin Ayre, the founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said that AI will change how people work, run businesses and create wealth, and that governments must give young people the skills and chances they need.
What to watch
- Whether countries that are behind improve their skills, internet access and electricity.
- Whether young people in countries with high AI readiness can find real jobs.
- Whether governments and donors act on the study's warning about the gap.
Glossary
- Ayre Think Tank
- A research group that studies how to help young people and countries grow, and that created the Ayre Index.
- Ayre Index
- A score that measures how ready young people in each Commonwealth country are for AI and related opportunities.
- Commonwealth
- A group of 56 countries, mostly former British colonies, that works together on shared goals.
- AI readiness
- How well a country's young people have the access, skills and conditions to use artificial intelligence well.
- 4G
- A fourth-generation mobile network that lets phones connect to the internet quickly.