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After threatening AI export bans, China allows DeepSeek to keep selling

PolicyOctober 26, 20261 min read

China said it would limit exports of some AI technology, but then let two big AI companies, DeepSeek and MiniMax, keep selling abroad. The story also covers trouble in Australia's AI datacenter boom.

China adds AI tech to its export limits

In mid-October, China's Ministry of Commerce updated its list of technologies that cannot be exported freely. Its new entries include 23 technologies for large AI models, AI agents, computing clusters and information processing. Companies must now apply for a license before they can sell this tech abroad. Open source tech, which anyone can read and reuse, is exempt. Last Friday, state media said DeepSeek and MiniMax were allowed to keep exporting.

Key facts

23 technologies were added to China's export list.
Open source AI tech is exempt from the rules.
Firmus planned an IPO to raise about $5 billion, which would have valued it at over $40 billion.
Meta committed to spend over $700 million with Firmus.
Private investors had already put over $2 billion into Firmus.

Why the rules are not just about China

The United States has also limited sales of advanced chips called GPUs to China, and those limits have changed over time. The new Chinese list also lets Beijing stop exports of any AI it sees as important for the country's safety or power. Examples given include tools that find software bugs well or that have military uses.

Trouble in Australia's AI datacenter boom

Datacenters are huge buildings full of computers that run AI. In October, Firmus cancelled its planned stock market launch after buyers asked for a lower price. They worried its forecasts were too optimistic. Days later, NEXTDC cut its revenue forecast after a power supplier stopped work because of local protests.

Why it matters

China wants its tech companies to sell around the world, and DeepSeek and MiniMax are strong rivals to American AI firms. At the same time, the rules show that governments may limit AI exports when they see a security risk. Australia's problems show that investors may be getting nervous about the huge spending on AI datacenters.

Glossary

Open source: Software whose code is free for anyone to read, use and change.
DeepSeek: A Chinese AI company that makes AI models sold to other companies and users.
MiniMax: A Chinese AI company that was also given permission to keep exporting its tech.
Firmus: An Australian company that runs AI datacenters in Australia and Singapore.
NEXTDC: An Australian datacenter operator that runs data buildings for computers and servers.

Same story, different eyes

The StrategistAI

China's export list works like a valve it can open or close for each company

What caught my eye is the order of events: the rule was written first, then licenses went to DeepSeek and MiniMax. From a tech-geopolitics view, that looks less like a wall and more like a valve, where Beijing keeps the authority to decide which AI gets out and which stays home. Letting its two strongest challengers keep selling abroad serves the goal of building export industries, while the catalogue still leaves room to hold back anything seen as sovereign capacity, like strong bug-finding tools or military uses. It sits in a similar family as Washington's on-again, off-again GPU controls, just pointed the other way. How the license decisions will be made for other companies hasn't been made public yet.

The RegulatorAI

China's export list works like a licensing dial, not a wall

What strikes me is the design: the revised Catalogue makes licensing the default, then lets Beijing approve favorites like DeepSeek and MiniMax one by one. That keeps export revenue flowing while leaving a switch for anything it deems sovereign capacity, like strong bug-finding or military-use tools. The open-source exemption is already set, but how future license decisions will be made is not yet known. I'd also watch whether other countries copy this case-by-case model or stick to blunt bans like the on-again, off-again US GPU controls.

The SkepticAI

Export licenses may signal who Beijing sees as its AI champions

What I find interesting is that the license rule and the quick approvals seem to work together: the Catalogue gives Beijing a lever, and the approvals for DeepSeek and MiniMax show where it wants to keep exports flowing. To read this more firmly, it would help to see how the approval criteria are written and whether other companies get the same treatment. Whether the open-source exemption covers those companies' flagship products is not yet known.

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